Scouting Report: Quentin Johnston
Johnston profiles as arguably the top X-WR in this year's draft, but are the inconsistencies a sign of a larger issue, or something easy to fix?
Background
Johnston played his high school football in Temple, Texas, about an hour north of the Texas Longhorns down in Austin. He originally was committed to UT, but flipped his commitment to Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs, making him one of the biggest recruiting wins of Patterson’s tenure in Fort Worth, as a top-100 prospect.
And much like Keeanu Benton yesterday, the decision for Johnston paid off quite nicely, as he came in and started right away for TCU, hauling in 22 catches for 487 yards and 2 touchdowns, an insane 22.1 yards per catch, showing off his deep threat chops early. His strong freshman year landed him on the Honorable Mention roll of the All-Big 12 team.
However, he built on a strong entrance with a sophomore campaign that earned him First-Team All-Big 12, as Johnston brought in 33 catches for 634 yards and 6 touchdowns, again highlighting himself as a dynamic big play threat, 19.2 yards per reception.
And then in 2022, Johnston was a catalyst for TCU’s breakout season under Sonny Dykes, as the Horned Frogs went 13-2 and making the CFB Playoffs. Johnston continued to have extraordinarily high yards per catch metrics, 17.8 yards per reception, to a total of 60 catches, 1,069 yards, and 6 touchdowns, including a big 76-yard touchdown reception against #2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
Johnston declared for the Draft following the season, and had a decent, but somewhat underwhelming Combine showing, running just a 4.52 second forty-yard dash, when most expected a bit higher.
Additionally, as far as some of the intangibles go, a few interesting pieces from Dane Brugler’s The Beast Scouting Guide on Johnston:
Johnston grew up in a military family where both parents were in the Army. His mother even served in Desert Storm.
Brugler’s sources described Johnston as “reserved and humble and competes with a quiet confidence … voted one of four team captains for the 2022 season, and NFL scouts use words like “genuine” and “unselfish” to describe him.”
What Johnston Does Well?
Johnston is at his best when used as a dynamic vertical threat, using his combination of height, weight, and speed to eat up cushion quickly and get behind the opposing secondary. Specifically, he has that turbo drive gear as a runner, able to turn on the jets and breakaway from defenders in a hurry.
He is somewhat inconsistent with his breaks and cuts due to his height and hips, but he consistently flashes a strong ability to sink and stop and comeback to the QB despite his height. This helps him downfield on routes like comebacks, curls, and even some stop and start routes.
Johnston is very adept against man coverage. Linking to Reception Perception here, but Johnston is consistently able to use his size and speed to beat press coverage.
Johnston’s ability as a vertical threat is boosted by strong ability to track the ball over both shoulders. Some guys will only be good at one spot and a little difficulty adjusting mid-air and keeping their eyes on the ball, but Johnston is good both directions.
Also of note, but Johnston is not exclusively an X-WR. He has some versatility and experience in several types of roles, even playing some snaps in the slot during his career. We saw how Kenny Golladay operated as “Big Slot” weapon, which also just serves as a reminder that size doesn’t dictate position as much as some fans think.
Good athlete with YAC ability with the ball in his hands. Can gain significant yardage off of screens and dump offs.
Where Could Johnston Improve?
The biggest thing Johnston will need to improve on is focus drops. His overall drop rate is a good deal higher than a lot of the other late first-round WR’s in this class at 8.5%, whereas guys like Smith-Njigba (4.8%) and Zay Flowers (4.4%) are much, much lower. Other metrics, like PFF, have his drop rate a bit higher (11.8%). Shows up on film, as Johnston will both have focus drops and also fits the ball a little bit.
Additionally, despite his 6-2/6-3 ish build, Johnston is inconsistent in the air/contested catch situations. His timing to high point the ball is probably the biggest thing I noticed as inconsistent, as it doesn’t appear to be an overly natural process for him.
His route running is basic, with the stereotypes of a generic Air Raid route tree applying here. As mentioned, there’s also some inconsistency in his cuts due to having longer legs. Will need more polish and technical refinement there. A couple of links here to help get a feel for the limited nature of Dykes’ route trees:
Land-Grant Holy Land blog introducing Cal’s “Bear Raid” attack.
Coaching Seminar Breakdown from Sonny Dykes on Building an Offense.
Overall, it’s more limited than NFL route trees, so there will be adjustment.
Needs to show more consistent burst off the snap to threaten deeper in quicker fashion. Stutters a bit too much in some spots.
Fit With the Detroit Lions
It is actually quite good in most cases. From an athletic testing standpoint, as mentioned, the 4.52 forty-yard dash was a bit slower than anticipated for him, but he crushed the explosive metrics, specifically the ones Detroit has prioritized from wide receivers so far. His ability to separate from defenders downfield, and a decent catch radius make him an ideal player to fill the X-WR role on the outside. Right now the Lions currently have Marvin Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds set to man that, along with some usage for Jameson Williams there. However, Williams is a better fit at flanker overall, and both Jones and Reynolds are on expiring contracts.
Thus, there certainly is a long-term spot open for a player with Johnston’s talents. And even more so acknowledging that Detroit would not have to rush Johnston into a major role, allowing him a bit more time to develop some further consistency and expand his route running tree over the course of 2023.
From a schematic standpoint, Johnston certainly fits a similar profile to what DJ Chark was in Detroit, and obviously we saw Chark play some quality football when he was healthy here. He would function as the vertical threat that Ben Johnson has tried to work in, pulling the eyes in coverage away from the box, and either creating an opening downfield for the Lions to exploit, or softening the coverage underneath and creating room for Amon-Ra St. Brown to work.
Final Thoughts
I like Johnston’s game, but I do not love it. There’s a few pieces that put him into the more “boom-or-bust” category, and thus it’ll require the Lions to have a high degree of confidence that WR coach Antwaan Randle-El can iron those out. At 18th overall, I think it’s perhaps a little rich for the lack of consistency that Johnston brings to the table, though the upside is certainly tempting.
However, I also doubt that Johnston makes it to the Lions at 48th overall, so it becomes a “How much do you really like the guy” question there at 18th. If the Lions opted to add Johnston, there’s definitely some merit to it, and again, I always love adding high upside players that a team can bring along slowly. We have seen this approach in Green Bay recently, as they use their draft-and-stash method to add athletic marvels like Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark, and then more or less redshirt them as rookies and develop them into more consistent, well-tuned players.
For Detroit, that’s a clear possibility here for Johnston, and I think he fits with Jared Goff particularly well (or at least the beast version of Johnston does) and fits the Lions overall scheme and desired strategy quite well. The fit is very high, but it comes with an acknowledgement that Johnston needs to sharpen a few aspects up to really become the best version of himself. The bust potential is higher than with some of the other players available in the late-first, but the upside is also quite higher than plenty as well. Overall, I do think Detroit’s in a decent spot to make that gamble, and so even though I do think 18th is a little rich, it’s not a bad bet for Brad Holmes and Detroit given how well they have constructed this roster.
The biggest question the Lions are going to have to figure out is whether or not Johnston can improve on his drop rate. This is from SBNation’s Seattle blog, FieldGulls, but an interesting observation on drop rate translating from college to the NFL:
Interestingly enough, 11% seems to be a significant cutoff with drops. That is, very few players have found much success in the NFL if they finished their final season at college with a rate at or worse than 11%. Over the last five drafts, there have been a couple exceptions — such as Darnell Mooney and Diontae Johnson, and to some extent Darius Slayton, who has been a solid contributor for the New York Giants. PFF lists those three as posting rates of 14.5%, 12.5%, and 18.6%, respectively, in their final NCAA seasons. Slayton has continued to struggle with drops as a pro, unsurprisingly. Furthermore, none of these three players were drafted higher than the third round.
So there is still a belief that Johnston can succeed and improve on that, but it’s certainly something to take note of and evaluate. Personally, my comparison for Johnston is probably along the lines of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, another big, fast wide receiver who had a mediocre drop rate, but managed has lowered it a little bit in the NFL.
I still think that the most likely addition here is Maryland CB Deonte Banks, though that does theoretically change if the Lions add Witherspoon early on. And regardless, if the Lions do actually pass on Johnston at 18th, and he makes it out of the first-round, I do think a trade up in the second is an idea worth exploring, though overall, there are enough concerns about Johnston’s drop rate and lack of consistency that do merit some consideration to passing on him, despite the upside. Very much is dependent on your risk vs. reward deliberation. I think Detroit has a good situation to bring him into to develop him and end up more in the reward capacity, but it’s not to say he simply will become that player. Thus, a tricky evaluation here, but a very intriguing player that I would be pretty interested in adding, but not a must have.