Scouting Report: Calijah Kancey
The undersized Pittsburgh defensive tackle is no Aaron Donald, but are there enough parallels to make him a worthwhile option for the Lions this year?
Background
Recruited out of Miami, Florida as a three-star defensive tackle, Kancey will almost certainly be one of the biggest misses for the scouting services coming out of that class of 2019, as he was ranked just the 850th best player nationally, the 113th best player in Florida, and only 63rd best defensive tackle of the bunch. With a likely first-round selection in the upcoming Draft, Kancey clearly beat his recruiting ranking.
At Pittsburgh, Kancey redshirted as a true freshman in the 2019 season, before becoming a rotational player in his redshirt freshman season in 2020, which included four starts and a breakout game (1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL) against Syracuse.
In 2021, however, Kancey really took it up a notch, starting all fourteen games, earning first-team All-ACC honors after 13 TFL and 7.0 sacks on the season. AP even named him third-team All-American that season.
2022 was simply a continuation of Kancey’s excellent play, as he started in 11 of the Panthers games (missed two due to injury), and had 14.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks. He was a unanimous All-American, the first one since Aaron Donald. He also was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Pitt’s second one in program history after, you guessed it, Aaron Donald. Kancey was not, however, a team captain for the Panthers, as the two defensive spots went to Deslin Alexandre (who had been captain as a junior), and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (who will likely be drafted on Day 3 this year).
Kancey’s Strengths
We will start with his pass rushing exploits, as Kancey is one of the most refined pass rushers in college football. He has a very deep bag of pass rushing moves and uses counters effectively. Kancey does not stop his feet almost ever, and even when his first move does not hit home, he’s very quick to transition into another.
This is aided by his explosiveness as an athlete, specifically his elite first-step. Genuinely the best trait to have as a pass rusher. Kancey’s game is loaded with him being the first one off the snap and getting into lineman before they have a chance to effectively counter. Lateral quickness is very abundant, helping him slide between gaps with minimal effort.
More down below, but while Kancey’s run defense is largely mediocre, his relentless motor does help him make plays in both facets of the game.
He also has a few other things I will touch on, but probably won’t add gifs for though. Kancey has excellent closing speed. Not hard to find that reasonable given his 4.67 second forty-yard dash at the Combine.
Overall, Kancey is an absolute terror as a pass rusher, and plays relentlessly.
Where Kancey can Improve?
I hate to be this general, but just about anything pertaining to his run defense needs a good deal of work. It goes even beyond his limited size as well, as the technique is not very good.
Kancey lacks the length needed to separate from guards who engage him in run fits. When the OL is crashing into him rather than setting back into protection, the limited space causes issues for Kancey, leaving him getting swallowed up quite frequently.
Kancey also lacks power with his hands. He’s not overly weak, but he does not generate significant movement with his punch on a consistent basis. This leaves his bull rush as being somewhat mediocre, at least relative to his other moves. Very much more a finesse rusher who wins with swipes and rips and spins. Does not power through blockers with regularity.
He also has a bad habit of leading with his head in run defense. Not only is this a bit of a red flag for concussions given his limited size as well, but in run defense, it prevents him from being to able to see where the ball carrier is at. In the clip above you can see how his head position and lack of size leads to him being swallowed up and driven off the ball with minimal threat to the run scheme.
I also think his gap discipline is lacking. Kancey will frequently end up well outside his lane attempting to make some major cut or something to try and make a play.
The other thing to mention is that I do find his production a bit deceiving. The best offensive lines that he played against were Tennessee (2022), Duke (2022), and Clemson (2021). In those three games, he combined for 1 sack, 3 pressures, and a forced fumble. A significant contrast to his breakout games this past season, which came against arguably two of the three worst OL’s that Pitt faced (Virginia and Rhode Island). And box scores aside, his games against those three were a big drop-off in terms of his effectiveness from snap-to-snap. Sometimes this matters a lot less than people think, however, but just noting observations.
Fit with the Detroit Lions
As far as Holmes’ historical molds go, Kancey’s a pretty solid fit, checking most of the boxes. He’s about 5 pounds shy of Aaron Donald’s weight, but that’s not sufficiently far off enough to be concerned, and the 6’1 height is also no issue for Holmes. As for the actual traits, as mentioned, his explosiveness, quick feet, and good use of his hands checks off arguably the top three traits Holmes has seemingly prioritized. Additionally, Holmes has an unusually high correlation with production for DT’s, and Kancey checks that box in spades (14.5 sacks in two seasons at DT is pretty nuts).
Add in a relentless motor, focus and intensity that both Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn will certainly love, and I’d argue he checks a lot of their boxes too!
Now, there are some significant drawbacks, and a few boxes he doesn’t check. First off, his arm length would be the lowest Holmes has helped acquire at DT by a good chunk. For comparison’s sake, Donald too was 6’1, 285 pounds, but he had 32 1/2 inch arms, whereas Kancey’s are just 30 1/2. A full two-inches there is significant, and Ed Oliver as well was a full inch and a half longer. The other box he does not sufficiently check off is power in his hands. He is a bit more of a finnese rusher, using well-timed hand swipes and rips to defeat the hands of offensive linemen who lean. He lacks that genuine power that Aaron Donald brings. And not even just Donald, but relative to the other DT’s Holmes has brought in, Kancey’s power is a bit lacking.
Overall, I think checking off like 5-6 of the top 7-8 boxes is well beyond sufficient to deem him a fit, nonetheless. He’s not a flawless fit, but there are plenty of appeals that Kancey brings to the table that we know Holmes likes to add.
Here is the central issue I have with adding Kancey. He is a pass rushing specialist, and cannot contribute in a meaningful fashion against the run. No matter what stretch of games, no matter what metric you want to use, the Detroit Lions were almost exclusively graded out as a bottom-5 run defense in the NFL. That needs to change. Now, I am sure some of you want to sit here and say that “This is the modern NFL. Running the ball does not matter.” And to an extent, that is somewhat accurate. However, when it comes to defensive production, stopping the run is actually of greater importance in determining if your team makes the playoffs than stopping the pass.
Here’s the specific numbers from 2022 playoff teams based on what ranking their team finished with in run defense, passing defense, rushing offense, and passing offense. Clearly, the most important one is passing offense, but on defense, your ability to stop the run is significantly more important than your ability to stop the pass. The Lions absolutely need to make sure they are stopping the run better in 2023 if they wish to make the playoffs, and I do not believe Kancey has much to offer there. Ultimately, he does provide a lot of value elsewhere, but an interesting observation to note.
Thus, we do get into a matter of fit and positional value. Isaiah Buggs graded out as a quality interior pass rusher in 2022, but a brutal run defender. Alim McNeill was slightly better at both, but also graded out as a relatively poor run stopper. The Lions also have Romeo Okwara coming back, and he has flashed as an interior pass rusher on third downs, as has John Cominsky, and Joshua Paschal has the tool set to as well. The positional value and overall need for a pass rushing specialist is shockingly low here.
Now that being said, I do not ascribe much emphasis to the positional value argument, I am merely pointing out some realities here. If the Lions believe that Kancey is an impact pass rusher, that can certainly be a worthwhile add with the 18th overall selection. Personally, I think a lot of people are getting caught up in the fringe-Aaron Donald comparisons a bit too much, and ignoring clear weaknesses and trends on what makes a playoff team.
Final Thoughts
So overall, I do like Kancey, just more as a rotational specialist rather than an answer to Detroit’s actual needs, and I am fine with that. Personally, I do probably prefer more well-rounded options for the Lions at 18th overall, specifically, Bryan Bresee or maybe even Adetomiwa Adebawore, but Kancey impressed a lot. I think he has a pretty high floor as a situational pass rusher, but I have significant concerns he can be the full-time player that smaller DT’s like Ed Oliver and Aaron Donald have become.
The biggest issues are that he simply lacks the explosive power that those two brought. He is aggressive in his demeanor, but simply lacks the raw strength to go through bigger players. His success comes from elite athleticism and hand usage, and that will certainly translate, but the lack of length and power will likewise also most certainly limit him to a rotational piece. Now, rotational pass rushers from the interior are still valuable, but I just do not love the idea of Kancey as the 18th pick in the Draft. I think the early 30’s is a more appropriate landing spot for him. I would be fine with the Lions picking, it would hardly be a tragic mistake, as again, he has a valuable skillset that can translate in a rotational capacity, but overall, I find too many clear drawbacks to be enthusiastic about him as a first-round pick for the Lions.