Lions Draft Strategy Hints From Free Agency

The Lions made several moves in the opening week of free agency, so now let's get overly speculative on how those moves changed the Lions Draft outlook.

First and foremost, it should be noted that every good general manager strives to fill as many needs in free agency as they can, allowing them to more easily go into the Draft with a “best available approach”. It is already hard enough to project how good a player will be from college to the NFL, so adding positional need into the equation tends to make things even tougher. So far, Brad Holmes took care of a big need by adding multiple talented cornerbacks in the first week, signing Cameron Sutton, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Emmanuel Moseley.

However, let’s talk about the speculative nature of Free Agency moves, and how those may have changed Detroit’s Draft focus:

Increased Need for DT Help

The one big need the Lions had and made almost no significant moves at was defensive tackle. The Lions made a smaller move to re-sign Isaiah Buggs after a decent run to end the season, but overall, that move in and of itself hardly solves the Lions glaring issues on the inside of its defensive line. Even with Buggs playing well, a lack of ability inside the box left the Lions exposed against Carolina, costing them a playoff game. Alim McNeill is a quality starter, and Buggs is a nice rotational piece, but the Lions need more help here and did not come out of week one with anything significant.

Specifically, I think this is probably the biggest one that will be directly tied to the Lions Draft strategy. Whatever odds you had on them taking Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey or Clemson’s Bryan Bresee or Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore, bump them up by at least 10% after this opening week of free agency. And even if they take one of the lighter 3T/5T players, it would not be surprising to see Holmes double up by adding Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton in the second- or third-round as well. There’s a big need here.

At this point, Aaron Glenn has mentioned how defenses are built up from the DL and at CB. Well, the Lions built up their secondary, heck, they rebuilt it. But the DL went thoroughly unaddressed, and now the Lions will have to walk away with an impact talent in this year’s draft class, or leave themselves somewhat exposed on the interior of the DL once again, with a very weak rotation, let alone upgrading any starting spots.

Personally, defensive tackle is one spot I am a fan of the split-starter approach at, meaning even if you have your top 2 guys for the 3T and 1T roles, you want to be able to let them split snaps with other rotational players, meaning you effective split the starter snaps between two guys. The Eagles this season were a great example of how beneficial it is to have multiple starting-caliber talents on hand along your DL. Fletcher Cox even mentioned feeling much fresher thanks to it. It’s a good strategy, and right now Detroit has two guys you can trust with significant snaps, but need at least one more, probably two to be safe, and ensure they are deep enough for a playoff run.

Right now, my only complaint with this free agency cycle is probably Holmes’ lack of action here. However, there’s still half a dozen or so quality pieces they could add, such as Shelby Harris, Matt Ioannidis, Poona Ford, A’Shawn Robinson, Al Woods, and Chris Wormley.

Do Signings Change Anything at CB?

The other major defensive need. The Lions were a lot more active here, bringing in three new starters in the secondary with Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley at CB, and then C.J. Gardner-Johnson as a slot safety. At both spots, the Lions effectively patched up their need for a new starter. However, that does not necessarily take the position off the table.

Cornerback, for example, is still very much on the board with any of the Lions picks in the first- or second-round of the Draft. Cameron Sutton is the only one signed to a long-term deal, and he himself has historically been more of a very good CB2/slot type, who has excelled outside recently. With his 5’11 frame, the Lions could still be in the market for a bigger CB1 type, someone out of the Draft like a Christian Gonzalez or Deonte Banks.

Now, could that also mean Devon Witherspoon? Theoretically that is quite possible. As I do scout on my own, I do hold some credence to my own opinions (otherwise spending the time forming them would be worthless), and I personally see Witherspoon as more of the Sutton-type mold, a high-end CB2, potentially super slot CB who can travel with a handful of WRs but not all.

However, I do weigh the opinions of those more connected than I, such as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, who had this to say about Witherspoon recently:

Witherspoon doesn’t have ideal size (5-foot-11 1/2, 181 pounds), but his game is very similar to that of Denzel Ward, who, like Witherspoon, played his college football in the Big Ten. Detroit has some difference-makers on the defensive front and has made some nice additions to the secondary this offseason, but Witherspoon’s instincts and ball skills would fit beautifully in the back end.

What’s notable about that beyond Jeremiah’s observations? The aforementioned Denzel Ward was drafted into the NFL by none other than the Lions senior executive advisor, John Dorsey, while he was running the Cleveland Browns. Additionally, Ward was teammates with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, and he too wasn’t too far off Witherspoon sizewise, coming in at the exact same arm length and hand size, but a smidge bigger, 6’0 tall and weighing 193 pounds. Lattimore went on to be a star CB for Aaron Glenn in New Orleans for several years.

Add in that both of the Lions most recent CB signees, Sutton and Moseley, are also coming in at 5’11 themselves (though both were in the 190 range themselves in terms of weight), and it is likely fair to suggest that Holmes probably won’t see height as a determining factor for CB1 duties.

That seems to be one diverging trend from Les Snead, who drafted heavily in the 6’1+ range when targeting cornerbacks in LAR. I do tend to apply the LAR trends to Holmes when applicable, as he was the primary assistant involved there, but as in this case, when things diverge, the prior data can be tossed out the window.

Offensive Depth

The Lions had a need for several depth pieces on offense, and largely only filled one or two of those spots at this point. To be fair, depth roles tend to not be filled at the opening bell in free agency, with that being more reserved for starters. However, the Lions did bring in former G Graham Glasgow to upgrade their RG/backup C role, and re-signed OT Matt Nelson, largely filling their biggest needs for OL depth (though there is still room for more due to contractual realities).

Thus, this is one to watch in the weeks leading up to the Draft as some signings will still trickle in. This is largely because the first week of free agency deals largely with re-signings and then new starters, not depth adds. The Lions still could use a backup quarterback to fill in behind Jared Goff. The options there are thinning quickly, with just a few decent options left, such as Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph, or maybe Trevor Siemian.

Other spots that could use another piece? There’s still room for an RB3 on the roster, though Craig Reynolds is likely a sufficient option there, and I’d more expect the Lions to add via the Draft if they did. Another would be another outside WR to add to the roster. Detroit has Josh Reynolds as a starter, and is banking on Jameson Williams taking a step forward, but with Jameson also splitting some snaps at flanker, there’s still room for a WR4/5 type, especially one who can play as a true X.

And lastly, another veteran swing OT wouldn’t hurt. As mentioned, Matt Nelson is back, but it’s usually better to have four guys for tackle, with being able to kick inside to guard. Right now Detroit is comfortably at 3 proven/experienced tackle options, so unless they think someone like Obinna Eze is ready for a bigger role, that’s one to watch.

Not an offensive one, but I’m not starting a whole new section to mention coverage-oriented rotational linebacker needed. Detroit had Chris Board for this role this past season, but he departed to sign a two-year deal with the Patriots, and will need to be replaced. The Lions do have Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes, and Anthony Pittman under contract, but they’ve kept five or more each year so far, and Pittman really is more of a special teams ace more so than a genuine on-field linebacker. So a coverage-oriented linebacker to finish out this unit would still have merit.

None of these needs are overly significant, but they do sort of paint a picture of what positions the Lions would likely target on Day 3 of the Draft. A good example? If the Lions bring in another RB, it would make a fifth-round RB pick somewhat of a tough sell to make the roster, making either the pick or the contract somewhat wasted. Again, not overly consequential, but helpful to observe nonetheless. Watch the guaranteed money in any contracts going forward. Anything significant (like $250,000 or more roughly) is noteworthy, non-guaranteed minimums are not overly noteworthy.